Circle stablecoin bet turns on $5T market math

Market context at 05.14 CET. DefiLlama shows total stablecoin supply near $306.0 billion, down about 0.34% from the previous day. USDC supply is about $72.3 billion, or roughly 23.6% of the stablecoin market. Binance shows Bitcoin near $64,101, 2.0% below its 24-hour high, with about $872.1 million in BTCUSDT spot turnover.

Circle stablecoin thesis moves beyond reserves

Rasmussen’s point, as reported by CoinDesk, goes beyond reserve income. He argues that Circle can become a payments company if stablecoins keep moving into settlement, treasury and consumer rails.

That is a much harder claim than a simple supply forecast. Reserve income depends on rates and assets. Payment infrastructure depends on distribution, software, compliance, counterparties and usage. Circle’s USDC page lists $94.0 trillion in all-time volume and more than 1,000 partners. It also listed $71.8 billion in USDC in circulation on 6 August.

Those numbers make the opportunity visible, but they do not settle the valuation debate. The market still has to decide whether Circle deserves a fintech multiple or a narrower issuer multiple.

What the live data says

DefiLlama stablecoin data puts USDC at about $72.3 billion across 154 chains. USDT is still much larger at about $182.0 billion across 130 chains. That makes Circle big enough to matter, but not dominant enough to own the category alone.

The original calculation is simple. Rasmussen’s $3 trillion base case is a 9.8-fold expansion from today’s supply. The $5 trillion high case would be a 16.3-fold expansion. If USDC held its current 23.6% share, that would imply about $708 billion to $1.18 trillion in USDC supply.

That is the useful tension. Circle does not need to beat Tether to justify a larger payments story. It does need stablecoin use to grow without losing share to banks, apps, exchange-issued dollars or new regulated tokens.

Arc is the next test

Rasmussen pointed to Arc as the next proof point. Circle’s planned layer-1 blockchain is meant for stablecoin payment activity. The question is whether Arc becomes useful plumbing or another issuer-controlled chain that customers can ignore.

Circle’s public USDC materials stress redeemability, reserves and multi-chain reach. Its reserve transparency page is central to that trust story. The next stage is different. Investors will look for partners that settle real invoices, payroll, cross-border payments or merchant flows through Circle infrastructure.

The risk is that stablecoin growth becomes broad but commoditized. Issuers may compete on distribution and compliance while margin shifts to banks, card networks or wallet apps.

Why EU investors should care

For Dutch and EU investors, this is also a MiCA story. The EU framework already forces stablecoin issuers and crypto service providers to think about authorization, reserves and consumer protection. DNB’s MiCAR overview points to that regulatory shift.

That matters for anyone using Bitvavo, EU-regulated brokers or dollar stablecoins inside DeFi. A larger USDC market may improve liquidity, but it also increases dependence on U.S. regulated dollar rails. CryptoFocus has already tracked how USDC gained from MiCA pressure and how stablecoin payments still face access limits.

The practical investor question is not whether stablecoins become larger. It is whether Circle captures enough of the payment layer to make that growth worth more than supply alone.

The next year should answer three questions. Does USDC keep or grow its share? Does Arc win external payment activity? Do new U.S. and EU rules favor incumbent issuers or invite banks into the same pool?

The U.S. regulatory backdrop also matters. The SEC staff’s stablecoin statement gave covered dollar stablecoins a clearer securities-law boundary in April 2025. That lowers one legal overhang, but it does not guarantee payment adoption.

This article is informational and not financial advice. Crypto-assets can lose value. Check the legal, tax and platform risks before putting capital to work. Speak with an independent adviser if you are unsure.